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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.42 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 37%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Cracovia Krakow 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.34 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights