Warta Poznań 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 43%, yet in-form Cracovia Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion Respect Energy in Ekstraklasa (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Warta Poznań's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Warta Poznań have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Warta Poznań are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cracovia Krakow's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Cracovia Krakow arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Warta Poznań edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Warta Poznań 0–0 Cracovia Krakow — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 42% versus Cracovia Krakow 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 34% | Cracovia Krakow 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Warta Poznań surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Cracovia Krakow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 1.022 / defence 1.043 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.131 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 0.932. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 39 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 38.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 43% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 30%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.32 | Draw 3.72 | Cracovia Krakow 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 50% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 43% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Warta Poznań 1.37 / Cracovia Krakow 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 1.022 / def 1.043 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.131 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.402 / away 0.932 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Warta Poznań 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 6) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.13x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Warta Poznań's last 39 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.72
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.10 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 13W 11D 14L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 14W 12D 12L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.42 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 19 home games (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 6D 8L from their last 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.24 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Warta Poznań (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 13W 11D 14L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.37 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Warta Poznań have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2024: Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 53%, Cracovia Krakow 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Warta Poznań) and 42% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 26% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 53% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 42% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 79% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Warta Poznań's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 6, as Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.10 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 43% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 30%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 34%, Cracovia Krakow 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.32 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.