Stal Mielec 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Stal Mielec welcome Puszcza Niepołomice to Arena Lublin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Lublin, Stal Mielec have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 0.90 (Puszcza Niepołomice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 1 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Stal Mielec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 52% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 48% | Puszcza Niepołomice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.23 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.865 / defence 0.935 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.653 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.192. Data: 48 Stal Mielec games / 48 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 22%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4.55. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Stal Mielec 1.23 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.865 / def 0.935 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.653 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Stal Mielec 2 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 48% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 0 | Puszcza Niepołomice 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.86) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.35
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.96
0.73
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.73 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 13D 21L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 11W 18D 19L from 48 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.15 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (11W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 7D 15L from 24 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 11W 18D 19L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.71 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stal Mielec have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
0
Draws
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-3 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 50%, Puszcza Niepołomice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stal Mielec) and 29% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 33% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 46% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 29% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.23 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.73 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.65 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 22%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 48%, Puszcza Niepołomice 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.15 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.