Stal Mielec 1-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Miedz Legnica make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu to face Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Monday 17 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stal Mielec have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Miedz Legnica (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Stal Mielec, 0.70 for Miedz Legnica — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Stal Mielec 1W, Miedz Legnica 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Stal Mielec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Miedz Legnica — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 33% versus Miedz Legnica 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 30% | Miedz Legnica 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.27 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.784 / defence 0.953 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.716 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.007. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Miedz Legnica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Stal Mielec games / 27 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 49% | Draw 32% | Miedz Legnica 19%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Miedz Legnica 5.26. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stal Mielec as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 30% | Miedz Legnica 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Monday 17 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 49% | Draw 32% | Miedz Legnica 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Stal Mielec 1.27 / Miedz Legnica 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.784 / def 0.953 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.716 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Miedz Legnica xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica?
Stal Mielec 1 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 49% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 0 | Miedz Legnica 0W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.78x the league average against Miedz Legnica's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Miedz Legnica's attack (0.72x) against Stal Mielec's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.09
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.96
0.69
Miedz Legnica xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.69 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stal Mielec come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 7D 11L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Miedz Legnica sit at 0.74 PPG from 27 outings (4W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Miedz Legnica — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stal Mielec's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Miedz Legnica have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Miedz Legnica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 4W 8D 15L in their last 27 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Miedz Legnica away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.31 PPG; Miedz Legnica away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Miedz Legnica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Miedz Legnica in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
1
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2023, when Stal Mielec 1-1 Miedz Legnica.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 31%, Miedz Legnica 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Stal Mielec) and 54% (Miedz Legnica).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 46% of games; Miedz Legnica in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Miedz Legnica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 54% of Miedz Legnica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 54% of Miedz Legnica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Miedz Legnica finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.27 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.69 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.78 / defence 0.95 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 49% | Draw 32% | Miedz Legnica 19%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 30%, Miedz Legnica 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stal Mielec arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.