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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sat 1 Mar 2025

13:45

Venue

Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Stal Mielec Win

43%

Stal Mielec

2.32

28%

Draw

3.63

29%

Korona Kielce

3.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.1%

Home win

0 – 1

9.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.34

Stal Mielec xG

Total xG

2.41

1.06

Korona Kielce xG

43%
28%
29%
Stal MielecDrawKorona Kielce

2.32

43%

Home win

3.63

28%

Draw

3.40

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.06

51%

BTTS No

1.94

Clean Sheet

35%

Stal Mielec

2.90

26%

Korona Kielce

3.84

Win to Nil

15%

Stal Mielec

6.72

8%

Korona Kielce

13.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.0 9.6 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
1 12.1 12.9 6.8 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 8.1 8.7 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 3.6 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
4 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.345
λ Away (xG) 1.063
Total xG 2.408
League avg home goals 1.421
League avg away goals 1.142
Stal Mielec attack strength 1.028
Stal Mielec defence strength 1.018
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.914
Korona Kielce defence strength 0.921
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56