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Dominant Slask Wroclaw run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Widzew Łódź.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slask Wroclaw beat Widzew Łódź 3-0 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.47 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.48 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Widzew Łódź landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.05 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 37%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.37 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights