Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom – Match Report

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Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Slask Wroclaw 1-2 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.10 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.95 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 31%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 45%, Radomiak Radom 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.43 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights