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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slask Wroclaw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Slask Wroclaw 1-3 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 0.97 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.06 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 31% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 36%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.40 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights