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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lech Poznan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slask Wroclaw beat Lech Poznan 3-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.14 xG and Lech Poznan 1.26 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Lech Poznan attack 1.02 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 33% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 39%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 48%, Lech Poznan 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.37 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights