Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slask Wroclaw face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jagiellonia travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Slask Wroclaw have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slask Wroclaw 1.70 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's (from Slask Wroclaw's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Slask Wroclaw have won 0, Jagiellonia 0, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Jagiellonia — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jagiellonia trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 59% and Jagiellonia 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 44% | Jagiellonia 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slask Wroclaw surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.69 xG and Jagiellonia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.177 / defence 1.138 | Jagiellonia attack 0.965 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.918. Data: built from Slask Wroclaw's last 40 games and Jagiellonia's last 39.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 52% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 21%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.94 | Draw 3.62 | Jagiellonia 4.82. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slask Wroclaw's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slask Wroclaw 70% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 7 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 52% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.69 / Jagiellonia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.177 / def 1.138 | Jagiellonia attack 0.965 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Jagiellonia xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 7) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 52% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (1.18) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slask Wroclaw's last 40 games and Jagiellonia's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.62
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.70
1.01
Jagiellonia xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
26.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.01 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 12W 11D 16L from 39 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 12L across 39 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.21 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 7W 6D 6L from their last 19 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 2W 10D 7L across their last 19 away games, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.51 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 69%.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 13W 14D 12L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Jagiellonia away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.42 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
6
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Jagiellonia 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Slask Wroclaw at 68%, Jagiellonia at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Slask Wroclaw) and 37% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 32% of games; Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 63% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 37% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 63% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.69 xG and Jagiellonia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.18 / defence 1.14 against Jagiellonia attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 52% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 21%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 44%, Jagiellonia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.21 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.