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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GKS Katowice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slask Wroclaw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Slask Wroclaw 0-2 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.82 xG and GKS Katowice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.8 short of their projected output. GKS Katowice outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against GKS Katowice attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 57% | Draw 23% | GKS Katowice 21%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a GKS Katowice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, GKS Katowice 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, GKS Katowice arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights