Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Slask Wroclaw welcome Cracovia Krakow to Tarczyński Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tarczyński Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cracovia Krakow — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 64% versus Cracovia Krakow 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 49% | Cracovia Krakow 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.912 / defence 0.965 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.861 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.232. Data: 39 Slask Wroclaw games / 39 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 33%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Cracovia Krakow 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.12 / Cracovia Krakow 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.912 / def 0.965 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.861 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Cracovia Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 38% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.39
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.15
1.02
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.02 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 9W 16D 14L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 14L across 39 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 4W 9D 6L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.21 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 9W 16D 14L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.11 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
From 9 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 58%, Cracovia Krakow 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Slask Wroclaw) and 37% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 37% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 42% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 37% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.02 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 33%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 49%, Cracovia Krakow 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.