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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 2D 2L at zondacrypto Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.80 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Raków Częstochowa's 20% rate and Widzew Łódź's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Widzew Łódź have managed just 0 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 56% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 47% | Widzew Łódź 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.42 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.026 / defence 0.874 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.865 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Raków Częstochowa games / 34 Widzew Łódź games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 4.55. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 20% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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