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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Radomiak Radom.

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Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Radomiak Radom have managed just 2 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 56% and Radomiak Radom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 47% | Radomiak Radom 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.74 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.025 / defence 0.879 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.943 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Raków Częstochowa games / 34 Radomiak Radom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 20%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 20% | Radomiak Radom 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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