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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 1.80 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Radomiak Radom in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Radomiak Radom have managed just 2 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Radomiak Radom 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 44% | Radomiak Radom 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.68 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.852 / defence 0.961 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.063 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.236. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Raków Częstochowa games / 52 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 46% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 3.57. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Radomiak Radom 90% BTTS from recent games.

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