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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to zondacrypto Arena to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 2D 2L at zondacrypto Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Raków Częstochowa's 20% rate and Cracovia Krakow's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Cracovia Krakow, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Raków Częstochowa.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

It is worth noting that Cracovia Krakow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 56% versus Cracovia Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 47% | Cracovia Krakow 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.63 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.026 / defence 0.875 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.947 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Raków Częstochowa games / 34 Cracovia Krakow games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Cracovia Krakow 4.76. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Cracovia Krakow lead the H2H ledger, but Raków Częstochowa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 20% | Cracovia Krakow 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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