Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to zondacrypto Arena to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 0D 6L at zondacrypto Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 0.90 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cracovia Krakow in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Cracovia Krakow, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Raków Częstochowa.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
It is worth noting that Cracovia Krakow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 66% and Cracovia Krakow 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 60% | Cracovia Krakow 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.02 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.131 / defence 1.422 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.840 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Data: 47 Raków Częstochowa games / 47 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Cracovia Krakow 3.57. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.02 / Cracovia Krakow 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.131 / def 1.422 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.840 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Cracovia Krakow xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at zondacrypto Arena.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 47% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 5W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.13) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.04
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.56
1.54
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
4%
27.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.54 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 7D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.15 PPG from 47 outings (12W 18D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.36 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 10W 4D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.15 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 19W 7D 21L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 18D 17L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.48 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 56%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Raków Częstochowa) and 56% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 39%; Cracovia Krakow in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 56% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.