Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 36%, yet in-form Zaglebie Lubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Zaglebie Lubin are 0.60 PPG clear of Raków Częstochowa in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 4W, Zaglebie Lubin 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 61% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 54% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.40 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.020 / defence 1.308 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.819 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.218. Data: 41 Raków Częstochowa games / 41 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 31%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.40 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.020 / def 1.308 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.819 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Zaglebie Lubin xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (9 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 4W | Draws 2 | Zaglebie Lubin 3W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.02) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.82x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
36%
2.82
33%
3.02
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.70
1.30
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.30 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 17W 7D 17L from 41 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 13L across 41 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.46 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 9W 4D 7L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.29 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 7D 17L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 16W 12D 13L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.55 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Zaglebie Lubin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Raków Częstochowa) and 45% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Raków Częstochowa 2-3 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.40 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.02 / defence 1.31 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.82 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 31%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 54%, Zaglebie Lubin 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.41 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.