🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Slask Wroclaw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Slask Wroclaw 3-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.83 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.41 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.21 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 30%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 41%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.76 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights