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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sat 12 Sep 2026

17:00

Venue

zondacrypto Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Raków Częstochowa Win

52%

Raków Częstochowa

1.93

25%

Draw

3.94

23%

Motor Lublin

4.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.75

Raków Częstochowa xG

Total xG

2.84

1.09

Motor Lublin xG

52%
25%
23%
Raków CzęstochowaDrawMotor Lublin

1.93

52%

Home win

3.94

25%

Draw

4.40

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.79

44%

BTTS No

2.26

Clean Sheet

34%

Raków Częstochowa

2.97

17%

Motor Lublin

5.74

Win to Nil

17%

Raków Częstochowa

5.73

4%

Motor Lublin

25.26

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.9 6.4 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 10.2 11.2 6.1 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 8.9 9.7 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 5.2 5.7 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.3 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.748
λ Away (xG) 1.090
Total xG 2.838
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.160
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.026
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.874
Motor Lublin attack strength 1.075
Motor Lublin defence strength 1.115
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34