Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.95x the league average against Motor Lublin's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.38
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.88
1.05
Motor Lublin xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
29.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.05 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.