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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sat 29 Aug 2026

17:00

Venue

zondacrypto Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Raków Częstochowa Win

41%

Raków Częstochowa

2.43

29%

Draw

3.46

30%

Jagiellonia

3.34

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.4%

Home win

0 – 1

9.4%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.36

Raków Częstochowa xG

Total xG

2.48

1.12

Jagiellonia xG

41%
29%
30%
Raków CzęstochowaDrawJagiellonia

2.43

41%

Home win

3.46

29%

Draw

3.34

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.96

49%

BTTS No

2.05

Clean Sheet

33%

Raków Częstochowa

3.07

26%

Jagiellonia

3.89

Win to Nil

13%

Raków Częstochowa

7.47

8%

Jagiellonia

13.01

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.4 9.4 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
1 11.4 12.8 7.2 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.7 8.7 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 3.5 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
4 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.359
λ Away (xG) 1.123
Total xG 2.482
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.160
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.026
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.873
Jagiellonia attack strength 1.109
Jagiellonia defence strength 0.867
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34