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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 22 Aug 2026

17:00

Venue

zondacrypto Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Raków Częstochowa Win

45%

Raków Częstochowa

2.20

30%

Draw

3.33

25%

Gornik Zabrze

4.07

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

0 – 0

10.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.33

Raków Częstochowa xG

Total xG

2.25

0.91

Gornik Zabrze xG

45%
30%
25%
Raków CzęstochowaDrawGornik Zabrze

2.20

45%

Home win

3.33

30%

Draw

4.07

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

39%

Over 2.5

2.56

61%

Under 2.5

1.64

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.22

55%

BTTS No

1.82

Clean Sheet

40%

Raków Częstochowa

2.49

26%

Gornik Zabrze

3.80

Win to Nil

18%

Raków Częstochowa

5.48

6%

Gornik Zabrze

15.48

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.6 9.6 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 14.1 12.9 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.1
2 9.4 8.6 3.9 1.2 0.3
3 4.2 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.2
5 0.4 0.3 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.335
λ Away (xG) 0.912
Total xG 2.247
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.160
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.026
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.873
Gornik Zabrze attack strength 0.901
Gornik Zabrze defence strength 0.852
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34