Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to zondacrypto Arena to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 1D 5L at zondacrypto Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 0.60 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Cracovia Krakow, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Raków Częstochowa.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
It is worth noting that Cracovia Krakow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 63% versus Cracovia Krakow 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 56% | Cracovia Krakow 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.79 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.075 / defence 1.420 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.263. Data: 43 Raków Częstochowa games / 43 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 30%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Cracovia Krakow 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.79 / Cracovia Krakow 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.075 / def 1.420 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Cracovia Krakow xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at zondacrypto Arena.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 41% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 5W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.07) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.49
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.32
1.52
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.52 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 7D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.16 PPG from 43 outings (11W 17D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.35 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (4W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.12 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 7D 19L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 17D 15L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.41 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 54%, Cracovia Krakow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Raków Częstochowa) and 54% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 41%; Cracovia Krakow in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 46% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.