Raków Częstochowa 0-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 July 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 3D 2L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for Cracovia Krakow and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 57% versus Cracovia Krakow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 46% | Cracovia Krakow 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.50 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.045 / defence 0.966 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.901 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.125. Data: 35 Raków Częstochowa games / 35 Cracovia Krakow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Cracovia Krakow 4.35. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Monday 29 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.50 / Cracovia Krakow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.045 / def 0.966 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.901 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 July 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 48% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (6 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 3W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.04) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.40
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.98 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 10D 10L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.14 PPG from 35 outings (8W 16D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 10W 5D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.31 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 15W 10D 10L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 16D 11L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.06 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 47%, Cracovia Krakow 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Raków Częstochowa) and 24% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 41% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 24% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.50 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 23%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 46%, Cracovia Krakow 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.