Radomiak Radom 3-4 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 30 as Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Radomiaka. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.10 PPG versus Zaglebie Lubin's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 43% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 44% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.883 / defence 1.159 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.948 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.139. Data: 63 Radomiak Radom games / 63 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.32 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.883 / def 1.159 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.948 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Zaglebie Lubin xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 4 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 37% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.37
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.58
1.25
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.25 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 16D 26L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.27 PPG from 63 outings (21W 17D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.25 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 9W 9D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.05 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 16D 26L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.16 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
0
Draws
6
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 45%, Zaglebie Lubin 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Radomiak Radom) and 55% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 42% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 42% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 3-4 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 44%, Zaglebie Lubin 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.25 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.