Radomiak Radom 2-1 Wieczysta Kraków – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Wieczysta Kraków travel to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.81 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.028 / defence 1.043 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Radomiak Radom games / 0 Wieczysta Kraków games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 55% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 20%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Wieczysta Kraków 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 55% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.81 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.028 / def 1.043 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Wieczysta Kraków xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 24 July 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 1 Wieczysta Kraków.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 55% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wieczysta Kraków in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Wieczysta Kraków's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Wieczysta Kraków's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.04
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.83
1.03
Wieczysta Kraków xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
29.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.03 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Pre-Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
0
Draws
0
Wieczysta Kraków
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wieczysta Kraków?
From 1 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Wieczysta Kraków last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Wieczysta Kraków?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Wieczysta Kraków 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Wieczysta Kraków 2-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.81 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.03 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 55% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 20%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.