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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.

Widzew Łódź have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Widzew Łódź are 0.50 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Widzew Łódź winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 69% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Widzew Łódź 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.952 / defence 0.948 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.891 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.097. Data: 62 Radomiak Radom games / 62 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Widzew Łódź 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.

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