Radomiak Radom 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Radomiaka — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Widzew Łódź have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Radomiak Radom. A 0.50 PPG lead over Widzew Łódź (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Widzew Łódź in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with Widzew Łódź winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 52% versus Widzew Łódź 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 54% | Widzew Łódź 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.10 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.080 / defence 1.034 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.910 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.147. Widzew Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Radomiak Radom games / 56 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Widzew Łódź 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.

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