Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Widzew Łódź make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L at — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Widzew Łódź have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.20 for Widzew Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Widzew Łódź and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Widzew Łódź 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Widzew Łódź 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.08 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.835 / defence 1.058 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.993 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Radomiak Radom games / 43 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 40%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Widzew Łódź 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights