Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź – Match Report

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Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 23, as Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.10 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.08 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 54%, Widzew Łódź 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.11 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights