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Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Raków Częstochowa 3-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.22 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.67, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 34%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 61%, Raków Częstochowa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights