Radomiak Radom 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Piast Gliwice are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Piast Gliwice and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 48% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 38% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.72 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.701 / defence 0.918 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.184 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.025. Radomiak Radom's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Radomiak Radom games / 64 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 22% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 43%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | Piast Gliwice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 30% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 22% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.72 / Piast Gliwice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.701 / def 0.918 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.184 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 22% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.70) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
22%
4.56
35%
2.87
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.83
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
4.56
22%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 17.8 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.11 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 21W 23D 20L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 27W 16D 21L from 64 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.34 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 8D 9L from 32 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.22 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 23D 20L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 27W 16D 21L in their last 64 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.38 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
5
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 53%, Piast Gliwice 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Radomiak Radom and 25% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 38%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 28% of games; Piast Gliwice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 34% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Radomiak Radom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.72 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.70 / defence 0.92 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.18 / defence 0.79, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 22% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 43%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.34 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.