Radomiak Radom 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion Radomiaka this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 0.90 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 3–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 48% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 54% | Piast Gliwice 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.27 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.147 / defence 1.078 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.855 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.174. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Radomiak Radom games / 47 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 31%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Piast Gliwice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.27 / Piast Gliwice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.147 / def 1.078 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.855 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Piast Gliwice xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 41% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Record (6 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.15) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.59
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.35
1.08
Piast Gliwice xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.08 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 8D 24L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 14W 20D 12L from 46 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.09 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 9D 9L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 14W 8D 24L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 20D 12L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.13 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
5
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 56%, Piast Gliwice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Radomiak Radom) and 22% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 30% of games; Piast Gliwice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 44% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 22% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.27 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.08 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 31%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 54%, Piast Gliwice 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.09 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.