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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and Nieciecza 1.30 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.26 / defence 1.02 against Nieciecza attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 24% | Nieciecza 29%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 80%, Nieciecza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Nieciecza's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.40 PPG, Nieciecza 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights