🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.31 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.30 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 36%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 53%, Legia Warszawa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights