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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach to face Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 11:15 UTC.

Form

Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Radomiak Radom are 0.60 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Puszcza Niepołomice lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 56% versus Radomiak Radom 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Radomiak Radom 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.946 / defence 1.043 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.106 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.198. Data: 62 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 62 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 34%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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