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Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.47 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 48% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 36%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.11 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights