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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 34, as Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 2.05 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.75 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.10 / defence 1.41 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 45% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 34%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 42%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights