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Shock result as Puszcza Niepołomice defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Puszcza Niepołomice beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 0.81 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.92 / defence 0.70, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 24% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 46%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Puszcza Niepołomice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 36%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.07 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights