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Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wisla Plock.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Wisla Plock 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.31 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Plock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Wisla Plock attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 33%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Wisla Plock 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.27 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights