🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Wieczysta Kraków travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pogon Szczecin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.76 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.004 / defence 0.977 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Pogon Szczecin games / 0 Wieczysta Kraków games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 55% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 20%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Wieczysta Kraków 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights