Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.50 for Widzew Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Widzew Łódź managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 42% versus Widzew Łódź 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Widzew Łódź 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.45 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.176 / defence 0.797 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.254 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.126. Widzew Łódź have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Pogon Szczecin games / 38 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 28%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 30% | Widzew Łódź 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.45 / Widzew Łódź 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.176 / def 0.797 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.254 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 44% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (4 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.18) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.25x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
44%
2.30
28%
3.54
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.58
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.12 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 18W 8D 12L from 38 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 14L across 38 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.42 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 11W 2D 6L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 5W 7D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.34 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.84 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 47% for Pogon Szczecin, 84% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Pogon Szczecin) and 58% (Widzew Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 84% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 58% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 2-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.45 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Widzew Łódź landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 0.80 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.25 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 28%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Widzew Łódź 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.63 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.