Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 4 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Stal Mielec 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Stal Mielec trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 43% versus Stal Mielec 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 51% | Stal Mielec 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.87 xG and Stal Mielec 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.255 / defence 0.888 | Stal Mielec attack 0.890 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.115. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Pogon Szczecin games / 37 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 17%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Stal Mielec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 40% | Stal Mielec 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.87 / Stal Mielec 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.255 / def 0.888 | Stal Mielec attack 0.890 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stal Mielec xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 60% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
Record (6 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 1 | Stal Mielec 2W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.25x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.26
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.75
0.88
Stal Mielec xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
39.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.88 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 8D 12L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 10W 2D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.16 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Stal Mielec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 17W 8D 12L in their last 37 games (1.59 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Stal Mielec away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.78 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 50%, Stal Mielec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Stal Mielec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Stal Mielec's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Stal Mielec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Stal Mielec 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.87 xG and Stal Mielec 0.88 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Stal Mielec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.25 / defence 0.89 against Stal Mielec attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 60% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 17%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 51%, Stal Mielec 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.