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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sat 1 Mar 2025

16:30

Venue

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Pogon Szczecin Win

54%

Pogon Szczecin

1.84

27%

Draw

3.68

18%

Lech Poznan

5.45

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

17.0%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.1%

Home win

0 – 0

11.9%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Pogon Szczecin xG

Total xG

2.13

0.70

Lech Poznan xG

54%
27%
18%
Pogon SzczecinDrawLech Poznan

1.84

54%

Home win

3.68

27%

Draw

5.45

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

63%

Over 1.5

1.59

37%

Under 1.5

2.70

36%

Over 2.5

2.78

64%

Under 2.5

1.56

17%

Over 3.5

5.88

83%

Under 3.5

1.20

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

38%

BTTS Yes

2.61

62%

BTTS No

1.62

Clean Sheet

50%

Pogon Szczecin

2.01

24%

Lech Poznan

4.16

Win to Nil

27%

Pogon Szczecin

3.70

4%

Lech Poznan

22.68

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.9 8.4 2.9 0.7 0.1
1 17.0 11.9 4.2 1.0 0.2
2 12.1 8.5 3.0 0.7 0.1
3 5.8 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.1
4 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.6 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.426
λ Away (xG) 0.700
Total xG 2.126
League avg home goals 1.407
League avg away goals 1.142
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.093
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 0.740
Lech Poznan attack strength 0.828
Lech Poznan defence strength 0.927
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56