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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Cracovia Krakow 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.90 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.72 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.20 / defence 1.20 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 35%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 56%, Cracovia Krakow 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights