Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cracovia Krakow are 0.70 PPG clear of Pogon Szczecin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Cracovia Krakow managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 5–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 49% and Cracovia Krakow 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 56% | Cracovia Krakow 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.90 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.201 / defence 1.201 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.182 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.209. Data: 46 Pogon Szczecin games / 45 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 35%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Cracovia Krakow 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Pogon Szczecin dominate the H2H record, yet Cracovia Krakow are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Cracovia Krakow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.90 / Cracovia Krakow 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.201 / def 1.201 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.182 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Cracovia Krakow xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (7 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.18x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.34
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.62
1.72
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
8%
13.21
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.72 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 20W 9D 16L from 45 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 13L across 45 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.60 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 15W 2D 4L from 21 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 10W 4D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.73 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 71%.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 16L in their last 45 games (1.53 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.24 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 38%, Cracovia Krakow 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Pogon Szczecin and 67% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 71% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Cracovia Krakow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.90 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.72 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.20 / defence 1.20 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 35%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 56%, Cracovia Krakow 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.