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Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 0-2 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.64 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 47% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 24%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 38%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.23 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights