Piast Gliwice 2-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Piast Gliwice versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Slask Wroclaw's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Piast Gliwice 2W, Slask Wroclaw 1W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 49% versus Slask Wroclaw 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 34% | Slask Wroclaw 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.39 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.071 / defence 0.906 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.022 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.151. Data: 35 Piast Gliwice games / 35 Slask Wroclaw games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 26%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Slask Wroclaw 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 40% | Slask Wroclaw 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.39 / Slask Wroclaw 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.071 / def 0.906 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.022 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Slask Wroclaw xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 42% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (6 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.07) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (1.02x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.16
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.46
1.07
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.07 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 9W 17D 9L from 35 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 7L across 35 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slask Wroclaw by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 7W 7D 3L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 9W 5D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.46 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Slask Wroclaw in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 17D 9L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 18W 10D 7L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.65 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 47%, Slask Wroclaw 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Piast Gliwice) and 47% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 53% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 47% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Slask Wroclaw 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.39 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.07 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 26%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Slask Wroclaw 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.