🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 37%, yet in-form Raków Częstochowa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Piast Gliwice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Piast Gliwice haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Raków Częstochowa's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Raków Częstochowa arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 10 meetings, Raków Częstochowa have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Piast Gliwice's 3, with 0 draws in the mix.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Raków Częstochowa have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 59% versus Raków Częstochowa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 53% | Raków Częstochowa 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.42 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.944 / defence 1.053 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.141 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Piast Gliwice games / 34 Raków Częstochowa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 36%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights