🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 March 2025 at 16:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Piast Gliwice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Raków Częstochowa's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Raków Częstochowa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 7 meetings, Raków Częstochowa have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Piast Gliwice's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.

It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Raków Częstochowa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 32% | Raków Częstochowa 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.84 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.936 / defence 0.971 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.965 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.154. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Piast Gliwice games / 57 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 28% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 41%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights